Allan Lichtman is a professor who has correctly predicted every American Presidential Election since 1984. He says Donald Trump will win the election.
Lichtman was interviewed by the Washington Post and discussed his system for predictions. He uses a 13 step process of yes or no statements.
These are the 13 factors:
- Party Mandate
- Third party
- Short-term economy
- Long-term economy
- Policy change
- Social unrest
- Foreign/military failure
- Foreign/military success.
- Incumbent charisma
- Challenger charisma
Professor Lichtman says when 6 or more of the 13 factors go against the incumbent party, the challenger – Trump in this case – will win.
Lichtman says that the Democrats are not in a good position, despite President Obama’s 58% approval rating. The reason is that Obama isn’t running again, and Hillary Clinton is not a charismatic candidate.
Lichtman discussed how difficult it is to assess Trump. The professor says America has never seen a candidate who spent his whole life enriching himself at the expense of others. He even called Trump a serial fabricator. Lichtman even admits Trump may end up breaking his prediction system by losing anyway.
Donald Trump will win because of Gary Johnson, midterm elections, no big policy changes, and Hillary Clinton’s shortcomings as a candidate
With Obama not running the Democrats are left with a less charismatic candidate. Gary Johnson will pull enough votes from Clinton to give Trump a narrow advantage. There have been no big and memorable policy changes in Obama’s second term. There are no big foreign policy successes lately. And the Democrats were badly beaten in the last midterm elections.
That is why Donald Trump will win according to Professor Lichtman, who also has a book coming out about his system.
Lichtman definitely hedges on his predictions. He says his system points to a generic Republican win, which would point to a Trump victory. But since Trump is such a “unique” candidate Lichtman says the election could really go either way.
The election will come down to votes no matter what any prediction says
With all the predictions and analysis and strategy, it’s easy to forget that voters will have the final say. No system or prediction is perfect and the future is always uncertain. Voters will decide what happens.