POLL: Nenshi Trails Smith By 17% Points In Calgary Mayoral Race

Political gravity may be re-asserting itself as centre-left mayor loses support in centre-right city.

Naheed Nenshi came out of nowhere to become Mayor of Calgary, running an impressive first campaign utilizing social networks in a way that was quite innovative at the time. As Mayor, Nenshi retained a high-level of popularity for some time, in large part because he utilized twitter in a way that allowed him to connect with constituents constantly.

Those innovations helped Nenshi overcome political gravity.  As a centre-left Mayor in a centre-right city, Nenshi has been pushing against the general tide of public opinion. While his personal popularity had insulated him from electoral consequences for many years, it seems that’s beginning to change.

Nenshi’s main opponent Bill Smith has campaigned against Nenshi’s tax increases, and it seems that campaign is paying off. According to a new Mainstreet Research Poll, Smith now leads Nenshi by 17 points. Here are the numbers:

  • Smith – 48%
  • Nenshi – 31%
  • Chabot – 6%

While some doubt whether Smith’s lead is really that big, the gap shows that Nenshi is in big trouble. Mainstreet Research CEO says “The path to victory for Nenshi is very, very narrow.”

As noted in a Global News report:

“(political scientist) Bratt said there’s been a growing anti-Nenshi sentiment in the race that appears to have coalesced around Bill Smith. He said Smith has attracted dissatisfied voters by focusing on tax rates and by highlighting “feuds that Nenshi has had with the business community. He hasn’t really put much policy forward, but he hasn’t had to,” he said. “It’s more an anti-Nenshi vote than a pro-Bill Smith vote.”

Election day will prove whether the Mainstreet Poll is correct, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see a centre-right city vote to replace a centre-left Mayor.

Spencer Fernando

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Ann
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Ann

I know that it doesn’t matter what your political allegiance is in a Municipal Election, but I am wondering if anyone knows what their political allegiances provincially/federally are. Would be interesting to know.

Dave
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Dave

Who decided that political alleigence doesn’t matter in a municipal election? I hear that all the time and it drives me nuts. Am I suddenly in favour of high taxes, big government and deficits because its municipal? I support “small c” conservative government at ALL levels. It just makes sense.

jack grandville
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Could one perhaps refer to this as a ‘reality check’ for both, the city and Nenshi?

Cheryl
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Cheryl

Nenshi is very controlling and doesn’t listen to people. It’s his way or the highway. Sound like any other centre-left dictorial sock showing politician?

Roger Shelswell
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Roger Shelswell

That is a bit of a good sign.Let`s hope the rest of the country wakes up and we get rid of all these left wing air heads.

Bob Craig
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Ann, it wasn’t party based before but Conservatives have woken up and realized we need to root out socialists at all levels of government. First Nenshi and city council, then Alberta, then (longer shot) The federal government.

Whatispoliticallycorrect
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Many laws are going to change in the very near future. Canada has never needed to try and put all grass root Canadians to unify as necessary in History. The changes coming will turn Canada from the Peacfull Country that our Forefathers fought for and how safe, peacful and Free that it has been for many many years. This may be the last time that I am able to say this before taken from my home and Jailed for my Free opinion. I do not want Canada an Islamic State. I do not want this for my Children and Grandchildren.… Read more »