By pandering to political correctness and copying Liberal positions, Patrick Brown suppresses his own supporters while doing nothing to mitigate against attacks from the left.
A new Campaign Research Poll shows that the Kathleen Wynne Liberals are within 3 points of Patrick Brown’s PCs, despite the government being massively unpopular.
The poll puts the PCs at 35%, the Liberals at 32%, and the NDP at 23%.
So, what explains the Liberals being so close?
Patrick Brown isn’t that popular either.
In the wake of a new barrage of union-funded attack ads, Patrick Brown’s approval rating has fallen to a dismal 21%, with 29% disapproving and 50% having no opinion.
The attack ads have focused mostly on Brown’s pro-life voting record while in Parliament, and appear to be taking a toll.
Since September, his approval rating is down 4 points, while his disapproval rating went up by 4 points.
Among female voters, Patrick Brown’s approval rating is down to just 15%, which is even worse than Kathleen Wynne’s rating of 16% among women.
Kathleen Wynne’s ratings also fell, dropping from 23% to 16% among men. However, she is maintaining enough support from the anti-PC vote to remain competitive.
“Pandering Patrick” strategy won’t work
Patrick Brown’s strategy so far has been to shift to the left on everything, from opposing Bill 62 (even foolishly calling it “racist), to supporting carbon taxes, and basically copying most Liberal policy.
As a result, Patrick Brown’s core supporters – who make up the people who volunteer, donate, and convince others to vote PC – will have lower enthusiasm. Meanwhile, Brown won’t get any benefit from turning against his base, because the left will attack him as a far-right extremist no matter what he does.
So, Brown can either be attacked while having motivated core voters, or he can be attacked while having suppressed core voters.
Either way he’ll get attacked, but by sticking with the core principles of his party he has a much better chance of fighting back and winning.
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