Campaign Research poll shows PCs have lost support since introducing their heavily-hyped “People’s Guarantee.”
Despite the deep unpopularity of Kathleen Wynne, the Ontario PCs under Patrick Brown are still trailing the Ontario Liberals.
According to the latest Campaign Research poll, the Liberals have 35%, the PCs are at 34%, with the NDP far behind at 22%.
The PCs have actually gone down 1% point since introducing their “People’s Guarantee,” which promised tax cuts while maintaining almost everything else the Wynne Liberals are already doing.
In that same time, the Liberals went up 3% points.
People’s Guarantee not helping the PCs
The “People’s Guarantee” appears to have fallen flat with most Ontarians, with Campaign Research showing it hasn’t made a strong impression on voters. When shown an image of the cover of the PC platform, it did not elicit strong reactions, as noted by Eli Yufust – CEO of Campaign Research:
“When analyzing our research in its totality, what we’re seeing here is that despite being able to breakthrough to a sizeable number of Ontarians, the image did little to excite the electorate or draw positive attention to the PC party. This is especially evident in the statistical tie we now see between the Liberals and the PC Party.So far, the hype and coverage of the PC Party Convention, did little to engender the PC Party and it’s leader, Patrick Brown, among the electorate.”
PCs aren’t offering much to their core voters, or those looking for change
The PCs are clearly attempting the strategy of copying most Liberal policies in order to be seen as “safe change.” Their hope is that they will be able to avoid the attacks of being “far-right” that are always levelled by the Liberals and the establishment media.
Of course, the risk is that playing it safe risks the PCs depressing turnout among their core supporters. Additionally, many people will wonder why they would change parties when the platforms seem so similar.
This can be seen in the fact that while the PCs trail in Toronto, and are up by just 1% in the GTA, they also only lead by 1% in the rest of Ontario, meaning their support in rural areas and smaller cities isn’t growing either, which they would need to offset the Liberals domination of the city of Toronto.
The fact that Kathleen Wynne is still in the running for another term despite rock-bottom poll numbers, shows that the PCs are simultaneously disappointing many of their own supporters, while not offering enough for people to switch.
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