Poll shows a much narrower race than Forum Research, but the trend of rising NDP support is the same. Will the latest revelations of extremist NDP candidates turn the tide?
A new poll by Ekos Politics shows the Ontario NDP with a “statistically insignificant” lead over the Ontario PC Party.
The poll shows a different picture than the latest Forum Research survey that had the NDP with a whopping 14 point lead over the PCs.
However, the trend in the poll is the same. The NDP have gained support, the PCs are relatively steady but losing a few points, and the Liberals are way down.
Here are the key numbers:
NDP 35.6%, PCs 34.9%, Liberals 20.4%, Greens 7.0%.
The PCs lead among men, while the NDP lead among women. The NDP lead among those aged 18-34 and 35-49, while the PCs lead with those 50 and over.
If these numbers remain relatively steady heading into election day (which is unlikely), then it will all come down to turnout. Since older voters tend to vote in a higher percentage than younger voters, the current breakdown in the Ekos Poll favours the PCs.
That said, if the Forum Research poll turns out to be more accurate, different turnout isn’t enough to make up a 14 point gap.
With a bunch of different polls coming out, it’s impossible to know which one is the most accurate. That’s why looking at trends is what matters. And the trend is clear. The Liberals are in huge trouble, and the Ontario PCs and NDP are battling for power.
Make no mistake, the threat of a socialist government in Ontario is a real possibility.
Notably however, PC support appears to have remained mostly intact despite a whole bunch of media-pushed scandals. It remains to be seen whether the NDP holds onto their support as revelations of extremist candidates emerge, and as their socialist hidden agenda is subjected to more scrutiny.
Photo – YouTube