If election were held today, Abacus Data poll shows United Conservative Party would win a majority government.
A new poll by Abacus Data shows the United Conservative Party holding a strong lead over the NDP in Alberta, putting Jason Kenney on track to become Premier with a majority government.
Here are the key numbers:
UCP – 48%, NDP – 33%, Liberal – 8%, Alberta Party – 8%.
The poll notes the NDP is 7 points below their 2015 results in the election, while the UCP is 3 points above the hypothetical combination of the Wildrose & PC votes in that campaign.
The UCP leads among all age groups, with a small 5 point lead among those 45 years and under, while leading by 24 points among those above age 45.
The UCP leads by 17 points among men, and by 13 points among women.
There is a noticeable gap in terms of high school, college, and university in terms of poll results. Among those who who completed high school or less, the UCP leads the NDP 50-27. Among those with a college education, the UCP leads the NDP 52-31. Meanwhile, among those with a university education, the UCP and NDP are tied at 42%. This is unsurprising, since large parts of some universities have been increasingly functioning as far-left indoctrination centres, creating a fertile ground for socialist parties.
When it comes to the regional breakdown, the NDP leads only in Edmonton, where they have 43% to the UCPs 35%. The UCP leads by 21 points in Calgary, and by 42 points outside of both Calgary and Edmonton. In urban areas, the UCP lead by 4 points, while leading by 18 points and 44 points in suburban and rural areas respectively.
And there’s more good news for the UCP, as they have the largest potential to increase their support. 57% of Albertans say they would consider voting UCP, while 43% would not consider it. By contrast, 44% would consider voting NDP, while 56% would not consider it, leaving the UCP with the largest potential support base.
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