The poll was taken before Jane Philpott’s shock resignation, so the Liberals could be even further behind.
A new poll shows the Conservatives taking a 9 point lead over the Liberals.
The Ipsos survey was conducted after Jody Wilson-Raybould’s testimony, but before the shocking resignation of Jane Philpott – meaning the numbers are likely even worse for the Liberals right now.
Here are the results:
Conservatives – 40%
Liberals – 31%
NDP – 20%
In vote-rich Ontario, the Conservatives also lead by 9 points, including a massive lead of more than 20 points in the 905 region, where even a small vote-change can swing dozens of seats.
Stunningly, the Liberals are barely holding onto the lead in Quebec, despite the fact that Liberal strategists thought the scandal (and the since-discredited spin that it’s about ‘saving jobs’) would boost them there.
The Liberals are at 35% in Quebec, followed by the Conservatives at 29%, the Bloc at 19%, and the NDP at 14%.
Those numbers are important, because it points to a repeated issue in Quebec. While the political class in Quebec is often taken as representative of the entire population, the reality is that Quebec’s elites are just as out of touch with regular Quebec residents as elites are in the rest of the country. While the elites want to subvert the rule of law for SNC-Lavalin, regular people want the laws followed and respected.
Now, we wait to see what the next polls will reveal, as upcoming surveys will include the impact of Jane Philpott’s resignation.
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