Many more expect economy to weaken.
The recent move by US President Donald Trump to lift tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum has caused a small increase in the number of Canadians who feel optimistic about the economic outlook.
However, that small uptick has not changed the underlying pessimistic outlook held by many Canadians.
According to the Nanos Bloomberg Economic Barometer, 30% of Canadians expect the economy to weaken over the next six months. That’s a drop from the 36% of Canadians who expected the economy to weaken in the previous survey.
Meanwhile, 16% expect the economy to strengthen, compared to 13% who expected strengthening in the previous survey.
Notably, economic confidence cratered in 2018, and has still not recovered, and the economy is facing stagnant growth numbers, as noted by Bloomberg:
“Canada’s economy is undergoing one of its most sluggish periods in the past decade with growth at a near halt, weighed down by last year’s sharp decline in oil prices and growing global trade tensions that have curtailed business investment. Home owners have also been rattled by a slowdown in real estate markets, particularly Vancouver and Toronto.”
And, despite the fact that optimism on the economic outlook and real estate increased, it was “offset by worsening scores on job security.”
So, the overall net outlook remains negative, and many Canadians continue to struggle financially under the burden of higher taxes, high household debt, and an economy that simply isn’t growing fast enough to offset those concerns.
And as I recently reported, the combination of Canada’s stagnant GDP and population growth means that – in real terms – Canada is actually becoming poorer:
“Canada’s population is growing by 1.2%.
Population growth in the US is 0.7%.
If we subtract Canada’s population growth from our GDP growth, we get -0.8%. It’s negative.
Meanwhile, if we subtract US population growth from their economic growth, we get 2.4%.
So – in real terms – the only terms that matter for real people since it’s what impacts our standard of living, the United States is getting richer, and Canada is getting poorer.
It’s really quite simple. If our income per person was just staying steady, then Canada should have grown by 1.2%. The rate of population growth and a stable income should give us a baseline GDP growth rate of 1.2%. That’s the minimum it should be.
Anything less means the standard of living and relative income of the average Canadian is declining, which also means our economy is getting worse.”
Because that reality doesn’t fit the narrative the Trudeau Liberals are trying to push, we don’t hear much about it, but the fact is that despite being handed a balanced budget and a growing economy, the Liberals have squandered it, and left Canadians in a very weak and vulnerable economic situation.
Spencer Fernando
