FORUM POLL: Conservatives Hold Narrow Lead

Projection shows Conservatives would win minority government.

Yesterday, I reported on the latest Nanos Poll, which showed the Conservatives and Liberals tied at 33% following the release of Andrew Scheer’s Climate Plan.

As I said at the time, “The survey diverges from some other polls in showing the Liberals catching up to the Conservatives, and also diverges in terms of the NDP leading the Greens by 7 points (17% to 10%),” and added “So, we should wait for some other surveys to find out whether this latest Nanos Poll is an outlier, or a trend.”

Well, we now have another survey to look at.

The latest Forum Research poll does indeed differ from the Nanos survey.

Here are the key numbers:

Conservatives – 35%

Liberals – 29%

NDP – 13%

Greens – 12%

Bloc – 5%

People’s – 4%

Other – 2%

Regionally, the Conservatives lead the Liberals 35% – 32% in Atlantic Canada, the Liberals lead the Conservatives 31% – 23% in Quebec, the Liberals lead the Conservatives 36% – 32% in Ontario, while the Conservatives dominate the West, with a 57% – 18% lead over the Liberals in Saskatchewan/Manitoba, a 57% – 16% point lead over the NDP in Alberta, and a 34% – 25% lead over the Liberals in BC.

Forum says those national and regional popular vote numbers would result in a Conservative minority government, with 150 seats. The Liberals would be second with 135 seats, the NDP would have 32, the Bloc 16, and the Greens 5.

In contrast to the Nanos poll which showed the Conservatives losing support following their climate plan release, the Forum poll shows basically no change. The Conservatives gained 1 point since the last Forum poll in early June, while the Liberals lost 1 point, the NDP stayed the same, the Greens lost 1 point, the Bloc lost 1 point, and the People’s Party remain unchanged.

Considering that the margin of error in these surveys is about 3% either way, those changes are meaningless.

It should be noted that Nanos polls generally show better results for the Liberals, and Forum polls generally show better results for the Conservatives, so we can gather that the overall federal horserace is pretty close, with the Conservatives leading narrowly, and the NDP and Greens fighting for third.

Spencer Fernando

Photos – Twitter

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Jeremy Clayton
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The reality that the LIBS are still even on the map should tell you everything. This disgusting, corrupt and criminal government would still be voted back in by many Canadians.
The West has to look at the simple truth. WE NEED TO SEPARATE.
They don’t care about us.

Candice
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Candice

This is just what Justin Trudeau the Economic Marxist wants. It is his goal to shut down the Canadain economy, and this fits perfectly into his scheme to do just that. Why fight it! It was probably planned this way!

Joe
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Joe

Everytime Scheer opens his mouth, he drops points.
Same party polices, just different face.

alanskelhorne
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and you sir, have no idea wha tyou are talking about, so I take it, you want this country to be done. I certainly hope that you don,t call yourself a Canadian.

Roy Elsworth
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Roy Elsworth

Spencer apparently I just heard the Ppc is in double digits in Alberta give or take a bit Maxime Bernier was on a pod cast Radio show and at the end the host said the conservatives internal polling had the PPC in double digit can you please verify that

Del
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Del

All political Parties should be required to run candidates in a majority of Ridings and in every Province. The current situation could be considered racist or discriminatory as there might be voters in every province that would vote Bloc. Many could use them as protest vote. As it is, the Bloc is simply a Provincial Party, mired in self interest and with no concern for TROC.

Don
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Don

If Sheer really wants the PM job he should tell Canadians he will opt out of the Paris Accord if elected. Mr. Trump made the right call for his citizens.

Loraine
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Loraine

CBC’s Aggregate June 25, 11:40 am poll, which includes the latest Nanos poll, puts the Conservatives close to 5 points ahead of the Liberals, and winning 160 seats vs Liberals 132. Poll indicates BQ – the party that held up Harper’s minority Conservative government – could win 16 sets.

Dave French
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Dave French

June 26-2019: The CONSERVATIVES Maintain a very SOLID LEAD
ANGUS REID recent Poll shows the CONSERVATIVES Leading in Every Region.
Here are the Key Numbers:
1. CONSERVATIVES = 39%
2. LIBERALS = 25%
3. NDP = 15%
4. Greens = 12%
5. Bloc = 5%
6. People’s = 4%
** It all depends on what Poll you want to accept as correct.
** There are a lot of Polls, so it shows Polls are NOT reliable,
as it would depend on what area (city, province, locale etc.) the Poll was taken,

Shawn Harris
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Shawn Harris

It truly is so sad to see so many voters that actually still think , that a deceitful, lying, narcissistic, fake feminist PM and his corrupt Liberal party is worthy of voting for. Just what will it take for voters to firmly reject Trudeau?. After all the scandals, lies, destruction to our economy and dividing Canadians, surely the voters would change their minds and not be so forgiving , so as to blindly vote Liberal. There is a good message to be extracted from this poll and many past ones; that the public is slowly rejecting Trudeau and that trend… Read more »

Jaba
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Jaba

God help Canada if Trudope and his gang gets more 4 years.

don morris
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don morris

The polls have been so egregiously WRONG in the last decade or so,it’s hard to believe any of them. Imo, polling companies can be bought, persuaded to slant the poll they are running via creative questions, as they all work for political Parties at one time or another. Like the infamous car magazines who extol the virtues of every vehicle that advertises in their magazine, their bias is for sale. The CPC should be leading by at least half a dozen points with all the LPC/Trudeau scandals since February, it isn’t very inspiring that the LPC still is even in… Read more »