Conservatives Hold Solid Lead Over Liberals In New Poll, But Is The Gap Narrowing?

Liberals appear to be recovering from their extremely low polling numbers of early 2019, which is no surprise since the establishment media is doing everything they can to boost Trudeau’s poll numbers and demonize the Conservatives.

According to a new Angus Reid survey, the Conservatives are holding a solid lead over the Trudeau Liberals.

The poll shows the Conservatives at 38%, the Liberals are at 30%, the NDP is at 14%, the Greens are at 10%, the Bloc is at 4%, and ‘other’ (likely mostly made up of People’s Party supporters) is at 3%.

When it comes to the regional breakdowns, the Conservatives are at 36% in vote-rich Ontario, leading the Liberals within the margin of error, as Trudeau’s party is at 34%.

In BC, the Conservatives lead with 36%, while the Liberals are in second at 24%.

In Alberta, the Conservatives have 63%, leading the Liberals who have 20%.

In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Conservatives lead with 50%, ahead of the Liberals at 22%.

In Quebec, the Liberals lead with 32%, while the Conservatives have 27%.

In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals lead with 39%, ahead of the Conservatives at 32%.

This Angus Reid poll differs from some other recent polls, including Campaign Research and Nanos polls which have shown the Liberals leading, particularly in Ontario.

A narrowing gap

The Angus-Reid poll does show the Liberals narrowing the gap, returning to their February 2019 support (31%) following a large drop in support during the SNC-Lavalin Scandal.

In March of 2019, the Liberals were at 28% support, in April 2019 the Liberals were at 25%, in May 2019 the Liberals rose to 26%, and now in July the Liberals are back up to 30%.

This is no surprise, since the establishment media has been doing everything they can to boost Trudeau’s poll numbers and demonize Andrew Scheer and the Conservatives. Additionally, the Liberals are upping the government spending announcements and the propaganda, while imposing restrictions on social media and online spending that disproportionately hurt the opposition.

Conservatives more certain

While the national and regional numbers are important, another important number is how certain people are to vote for the party they currently support.

And when looking at those numbers, it is clear the Conservative vote is far more solid.

63% of Conservatives say they are “absolutely certain” of their vote, while 28% are “fairly certain.”

Just 33% of Liberals are “absolutely certain” of their vote, while 36% are “fairly certain.”

The NDP has even worse numbers, with only 24% saying they are “absolutely certain” of their vote, while 49% are “fairly certain.”

Among Green voters, 16% are “absolutely certain” of their vote, while 42% are “fairly certain.”

It remains to be seen whether the results of this poll will be seen in other surveys, or whether the recent divergence in polls will continue.

Spencer Fernando

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Shawn Harris
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Shawn Harris

Considering that this poll can be seen as a one off poll compared to the others , it is rather hopeful. That this is the start of a upward trend for the Conservatives; that leads to a majority government. Especially if you consider that the combination of absolutely and fairly certain Conservative voters results in a potential vote of 91 % versus 69% for the Liberals. Even if only half of those fairly certain Conservatives vote, the result would be 77% versus 51% for the Liberals. Either way, it would result in more seats for the Conservatives than for the… Read more »