As election nears, the polls are tightening.
A new Angus Reid poll shows the Conservatives with a small lead over the Liberals, a finding also replicated in other recent opinion polls.
The survey gives the Conservatives 36% support nationwide, while the Liberals are close behind at 32%. The NDP and Greens are at 14% and 9% respectively.
In the previous Angus Reid poll, the Conservatives led the Liberals 38-30, so the re-emergence of the SNC-Lavalin Scandal has done little to impact voter perceptions.
Battleground Ontario remains close, with the Conservatives holding a statistically insignificant 1 point lead over the Liberals.
Here are the regional breakdowns:
BC: Conservatives 35%, Liberals 29%, NDP 15%, Greens 19%
Alberta: Conservatives 61%, Liberals 20%, NDP 9%, Greens 3%
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: Conservatives 56%, Liberals 19%, NDP 15%, Greens 8%
Ontario: Conservatives 36%, Liberals 35%, NDP 17%, Greens 7%
Quebec: Liberals 38%, Conservatives 20%, NDP 11%, Greens 9%, Bloc 17%
Atlantic: Conservatives 34%, Liberals 31%, NDP 15%, Greens 17%
The good news for the Conservatives is that they lead in nearly every region of the country. The bad news for the Conservatives is that their lead in Ontario is within the margin of error, and they trail in Quebec.
This means that even if the Conservatives are currently in a position to win the most seats based on these poll numbers, they wouldn’t win a majority, leaving the real possibility of a Liberal-NDP coalition to shut the Conservatives out of power.
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