Nobody is close to a majority.
A new Mainstreet Research poll conducted after the English language leaders debate shows the NDP getting a big boost, while the Conservatives and Liberals are struggling.
According to the survey, the Conservatives are at 32.2% nationwide, down from 1.8% at the beginning of the election campaign.
For the Liberals, the drop is even more substantial, with their support now at 30.2%, down 7.3% from when the campaign began.
The NDP has surged, with their support reaching 15.1%, up 6.7% from when the campaign started.
The Greens are down 1% to 9.8%, while the PPC is at 4%, down 0.6% from when the campaign started.
The Bloc has also risen during teh campaign, now reaching 30.8% in Quebec, putting them in first place.
Here are the regional breakdowns:
BC – Conservatives 33.3%, Liberals 21.2%, NDP 20.5%, Greens 18.5%, PPC 3.7%
Alberta – Conservatives 63.2%, Liberals 15.3%, NDP 11%, PPC 5.3%, Greens 3.5%
Saskatchewan/Manitoba – Conservatives 48.5%, NDP 26.1%, Liberals 14.4%, Greens 5.7%, PPC 4.7%
Ontario – Liberals 40.9%, Conservatives 30.9%, NDP 14.1%, Greens 9%, PPC 3.4%
Quebec – Bloc 30.8%, Liberals 27.7%, Conservatives 17%, NDP 13.6%, Greens 5.5%, PPC 4.4%
Atlantic – Liberals 36.3%, Greens 26.1%, Conservatives 22.4%, NDP 11.2%, PPC 3.1%
These are quite interesting numbers, and they point towards Canada being a heavily divided nation. If replicated on election day, this would lead to chaos, and a probably surge in both Western Separatism and Quebec Separatism. All party leaders – except the Bloc leader – would be weakened, and the knives would be out for both Scheer and Trudeau, and likely Singh if he can’t translate his growing personal popularity into actual votes.
What is also becoming clear is that the Conservatives and Liberals have both been successful in ruining the image of their opposing party leaders, which has had the effect of causing both parties to become less and less popular as the campaign goes on.
In a two party system that approach can work, but in a system with multiple parties capable of gaining seats, the Conservatives and Liberals are both at risk of emerging from this campaign in a severely weakened state.
Spencer Fernando
Photo – YouTube
