FINAL POLLS: Conservatives & Liberals Deadlocked

If the polls are even close to being accurate, Election Day will be the end of the campaign, and the beginning of a new era of chaos in Canada.

It’s a deadlock.

That’s the verdict of the final Canadian election polls, as Sunday turns into Monday and the moment of decision nears.

Polls from Campaign Research, Mainstreet Research, Abacus, Nanos, and Ipsos all show the race between the Conservatives and Liberals incredibly close, with the parties within the margin-of-error of each other in all the polls. It should be noted that the results in all the polls are very similar, even among pollsters who are generally considered pro-Conservative and pro-Liberal respectively. This means that either all the pollsters are missing something big that will only be revealed on Election Day, or that they are all accurately reading the electorate.

Here are the final numbers:

CAMPAIGN RESEARCH: Liberals 31.7%, Conservatives 31.4%, NDP 17.4%, Greens 9.1%, Bloc 6.6%, PPC 2.7%

IPSOS: Conservatives 33%, Liberals 31%, NDP 18%, Greens 6%, Bloc 7%, PPC 3%

MAINSTREET RESEARCH: Conservatives 32.2%, Liberals 31.6%, NDP 18.3%, Greens 6.1%, Bloc 7.9%, PPC 2.8%

ABACUS: Liberals 34%, Conservatives 32%, NDP 16%, Greens 8%, Bloc 8%, PPC 2%

NANOS: Conservatives 31.5%, Liberals 31.0%, NDP 18.8%, Greens 9.5%, Bloc 7.0%, PPC 1.8%

There are some areas of potential concern for all parties in these numbers. For the Conservatives, they appear to be falling far short of a majority, and their massive support in Alberta and Saskatchewan, combined with struggles in Ontario Quebec, means they could run up huge margins in seats they were already going to win, while failing to gain enough new seats in battleground regions.

For the Liberals, it’s clear that Trudeau’s image has been substantially damaged. While his scandals have not destroyed the Liberal party, they are far below their 2015 numbers. Instead of roaring to a clear victory, they have been reduced to a brutally negative campaign to try and hold onto what they have.

The NDP has recovered from their moribund levels early in the campaign, and Jagmeet Singh has boosted his personal popularity. But, the NDP is still far below the top two parties, and could get wiped out in Quebec.

The Greens had a lot of momentum when the campaign began, but that momentum has shifted to the NDP. Once again, it appears that Elizabeth May has failed to translate the Greens potential support into real support. Remember, at one point it seemed possible the Greens would surpass the NDP. Now, that’s clearly not happening.

The Bloc may be the only party with no real reason to be worried, as they have been surging for weeks and really only had one direction to go. However, the Bloc may soon have to decide who to support in a minority government, imposing some real responsibility on a party that had hoped to rip the government from the sidelines.

And for the PPC, it remains to be seen whether Maxime Bernier will win his own seat, and beyond that, whether the PPC can win a few other seats around the nation. It could happen if there are lots of ‘shy PPC supporters,’ but that remains to be seen.

This looks like it will be the closest federal election Canada has seen in decades.

Spencer Fernando

Photos – Twitter

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Joanne
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Joanne

It’s going to be hard to sleep tonight.

Bruno
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Bruno

The “D”day is here.I have bought myself a bottle of a good drink,and a big hankerchief.I may celebrate or sob all night.Cheer Up Canadians.Salud Canadien.

Joe
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Joe

I’m screwed…
I have no PPC candidate in my area in Muskoka, Ontario.
Yet, I do not want Trudeau back in office…

Kate
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Kate

There are a lot of really uneducated and misinformed people on the Liberal team then. How anyone with an ounce of morals and ethics can place a vote for Trudeau who has NONE, Nadda is beyond any realm of reality to me.

Moe S.
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Moe S.

I’m still hoping the middle class, those people working 40-60 hours per week, struggling paycheque to paycheque, having to give the Federal global village Emperor 40% of that paycheque in taxes have woken-up. I’m still hoping the backlash vote from ALL these hard-working Canadians is yet to come.

George
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George

The “Conservatives” have blown it with weak leadership and a total loss of conservative principles and policy.
refusing to not only defend life, free-speech, gun-rights, going along with the “Climate Crisis” scam, values…
but also refusing to explain why they are right and the opposition is wrong.
Liberal-lite is a losing strategy.
This is why the PPC exists.

and now this story about the CPC trying to smear the PPC.
Pathetic! sorry but they lost my vote this weekend.

Esther Lindberg
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Esther Lindberg

I voted PPC before advance polls opened because I was born a month after Pearl Harbour where they expected Esquimalt bombed next. I grew up loving all people’s but knowing how to recognize values/principles/freedoms and caring enough for truth that I’ll sacrifice the lies/manipulations for all of us to care for one another”s value!

Xena Gomes
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Xena Gomes

You lost your own vote, friend.You do not know who your enemy is ,nor his plans for your future. Dig deeper and learn. Big abysses are more important than small ones.This time, it is obvious where the meat is.You are losing the train.

Shawn Harris
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Shawn Harris

To be clear about what party people should vote for, remember these names and exactly what they did to Canada and Canadians, McGuinty, Wynne, Notely, Horgan and lastly the most destructive of them all , Trudeau. All of them are extreme socialists all pretending to support the poor, working poor and middle class citizens behind a cruelly deceitful venere of sanctimonious self righteousness. None of these far left extreme socialists and their political parties deserve to be supported or voted for. Love or hate the Conservatives, with or without Scheer, they at least show promise of rebuilding the Canada we… Read more »

Xena Gomes
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Xena Gomes

Ditto. Have you been reading my mind? Naive Canadians like to lie to themselves about how nice and how good everything is and will be.Never a problem…so why look for solutions?A sunny -day- unicorn- clown will lead this country to a nice and cozy Basic Dictatorship, with two Dear Leaders, Trugroper and Jugnut, to fight for.